I got here throughout a stunning tweet lately. Test this out:
I take advantage of about ¾ of those every day. (No, I don’t have a Snapchat account!)
But none of them had been round simply 20 years in the past.
It’s onerous to think about what life will seem like 20 years from now, a lot much less 5 years from now.
One approach to clarify the speedy development this century is a precept known as Moore’s Regulation.
Within the Sixties, Intel’s founder Gordon Moore seen that laptop chips might maintain twice as many transistors each two years.
Moore’s Regulation was born out of this statement.
Right now it has come to imply that computer systems get extra highly effective, smaller and cheaper over time as their elements shrink.
Roughly doubling in energy each two years.
Semiconductor corporations use this “two-year rule” to plan their work.
They know they should create higher chips each two years or different corporations will get forward of them.
And this “two-year rule” has been surprisingly constant.
Check out this chart posted on X by Steve Jurvetson, an early VC investor in Tesla and SpaceX.
It exhibits the accuracy of Moore’s Regulation all the best way again by means of the start of the twentieth century:
In his phrases:
“NOTE: this can be a semi-log graph, so a straight line is an exponential; every y-axis tick is 100x. This graph covers a 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000x enchancment in computation/$. Pause to let that sink in.”
He’s saying Moore’s Regulation is so highly effective that an correct illustration of it might make this chart taller than a 10-story constructing.
But what’s taking place at this time with AI is totally blowing it away…
Hyper Moore’s Regulation
Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang, lately launched an idea he calls “Hyper Moore’s Regulation.”
He believes AI computing efficiency has the potential to blow previous Moore’s Regulation and double and even triple yearly.
And he is perhaps proper.
From Ankur Bulsara:
“If Moore’s regulation is a 2X exponential curve, NVIDIA’s final 8 years have been a 2.34X exponential curve. Not solely is AI compute growing exponentially, it’s a *steeper* curve than Moore’s regulation. Possibly probably the most consequential scale issue this decade.”
This implies AI expertise is turning into sooner and extra clever at a tempo we’ve by no means seen earlier than.
And I believe the very best instance of that is OpenAi’s new mannequin launch.
Again in September of 2024, OpenAI launched a brand new sort of AI computing mannequin completely different from the normal giant language fashions (LLMs) it launched with ChatGPT.
It’s known as OpenAI o1, and it was designed to spend extra time reasoning earlier than responding.
This capacity permits it to unravel harder issues in science, coding and math.
Per the corporate’s press launch:
“We educated these fashions to spend extra time considering by means of issues earlier than they reply, very similar to an individual would. By means of coaching, they study to refine their considering course of, attempt completely different methods, and acknowledge their errors.”
And it’s already confirmed to be extremely efficient, exhibiting PhD-like intelligence for sure duties.
Once more, OpenAI was launched simply 3 months in the past…
But it surely has already been up to date. OpenAI introduced their new o3 mannequin this month.
Right here’s what Reddit person MetaKnowing posted when it was launched:
What does all this imply?
The poster above believes that we’ve already achieved synthetic common intelligence or AGI.
However Sam Altman defines AGI as:
“Mainly the equal of a median human that you could possibly rent as a co-worker.”
So I don’t imagine we’re fairly there but.
However I do imagine it might occur as early as this yr.
And whether or not you’re simply beginning out within the workforce, you’re already retired or anyplace in between…
The following few years might make the final 20 seem like a heat up act.
Regards,
Ian KingChief Strategist, Banyan Hill Publishing
